In 2024, although the export volume of Chinese-made BEVs to the EU declined by 12.1% YoY, they remained the main export type. Meanwhile, ICE and PHEV exports increased by 27.6% and 66.9% YoY, respectively.

In 2024, Tesla China ranked first in exporting PVs from China to the EU, despite a 23% YoY decline, holding a 25.4% market share. SAIC was second with a 33% drop, while Volvo Asia-Pacific ranked third with a 29% increase. BYD’s growth of 120% allowed it to surpass Chery, claiming the fourth spot with a 10.7% market share.

Belgium was the top destination for Chinese PV exports to the EU in 2024, with export volume growing 24% YoY, accounting for 37.1% of total exports. Spain and Italy ranked 2nd and 3rd, with YoY changes of -14% and +16% respectively. Romania was the fastest-growing market, with exports increasing by 833% in 2024.

Belgium and Spain are the main destinations for Tesla and BYD exports, accounting for 70% of the share. Meanwhile, SAIC and Chery’s primary export destination in the EU is Italy, followed by Spain.

Livanauto primarily exports to Spain, while Polestar’s top two export countries are Germany and Sweden. BMW Brilliance, Smart, and Lynk & Co mainly export to Belgium and Spain.

In the European region, the top three countries for Tesla China’s exports in 2024 are Belgium, the UK, and Spain. Belgium saw a YoY increase of 16%, accounting for 53.1% of the total, while the UK and Spain declined by 32% and 61%, respectively. Romania recorded the highest growth, whereas the Netherlands experienced the largest decline.

Excluding the European region, the top 3 countries for Tesla China‘s exports in 2024 are Canada, Australia, and Thailand, with YoY declines of 30%, 27%, and 74%, respectively. The Philippines, UAE, Mexico, and Indonesia are new export destinations for Tesla China in 2024, while Singapore is the only country to record a YoY increase.

In 2024, CATL’s usage of ternary lithium and LFP batteries accounted for 61% and 39%, respectively. The usage of ternary lithium batteries represented 70.2% of the overall market, solidifying CATL’s dominant position. Meanwhile, the usage of LFP batteries accounted for 27.1% of the total market.

In the 2024 BEV market, CATL installed approximately 1.3M battery packs with 125-140Wh/kg energy density, followed by 784K vehicles equipped with >160Wh/kg battery packs. In the PHEV/EREV market, 458k vehicles were equipped with 140-160Wh/kg battery packs, and 375k vehicles with >160Wh/kg battery packs.

Tesla’s usage reached 37.6GWh, making it CATL’s top partner, accounting for 16.9% of CATL’s total usage. NIO and Aito ranked 2nd and 3rd, while Xiaomi held the 7th position.

In 2024, Tesla Model Y EV ranked first in CATL battery usage, reaching 26.6 GWh. Xiaomi SU7 and Tesla Model 3 ranked second and third with battery usage of 11.4 GWh and 10.9 GWh respectively.

The New Energy Vehicle market achieved total sales of 12.2 million units, representing a YoY growth of 37.1% and a market penetration rate of 45%.

Throughout 2024, New Energy Vehicle exports reached 1.089 million units, reflecting a YoY growth of 5.4%, with the export growth rate slowing down.

The growth rates for PHEV, EREV, and BEV were 88%, 79%, and 15%, respectively. Although BEVs still held 57.9% of the NEV market share, this marked a decline of 23.7 pcts compared to 2020

Chinese brands captured 81% of the NEV market share, an increase of 20 pct over five years. In contrast, JV brands lagged in product launches, leading to a significant decline in their market share

The NEV market has grown rapidly in the B-segment and above, with penetration rates reaching 48% in the B-segment and 67% in the C/D-segment.
The intensive launch of A-segment NEVs in late 2024 is expected to drive rapid growth in this segment by 2025

NEV SUV and sedan markets maintained rapid growth, while MPVs gradually gained attention. Among the top 10 best-selling models in each category in 2024, 6 out of 10 sedan models, 4 out of 10 SUV models, and 3 out of 10 MPV models were NEVs

BYD achieved rapid growth, with remarkable success in the NEV market. Tesla’s 2024 sales declined 3%, yet maintained second place. Li Auto and AITO also entered the top five

CATL and BYD account for 70% of the power battery market’s installed capacity, with LFP being adopted by more manufacturers

As of Oct 2024, NEV sales have reached 9.2M units, and full-year sales are expected to surpass 12M, with a penetration rate of 44.7%

As of Oct, NEV exports hit 990k units, a 16.5% YoY increase. Full-year exports are projected to reach 1,230k units, up 19% YoY.

BEVs dominate, EREV & PHEV share rises fast, more brands join EREV/PHEV segment

Chinese brands have captured 80% of the market share in the NEV market, while JV brands are progressing slowly

NEV is gradually developing towards the high-end market, with market penetration showing a dumbbell shape

NEV SUVs show rapid growth, MPVs rising steadily. By Oct, 56 new SUVs vs 40 new sedans launched

BYD, Tesla, and Wuling have maintained stable performance over the years, while competition among other brands has become increasingly intense

CATL and BYD account for 70% of the power battery market’s installed capacity, with LFP being adopted by more manufacturers

As of Q3 2024, global NEV sales reached 11.6M units, with annual sales expected to reach 16.8M units, achieving a penetration rate of 23.1%

Over years of development, Chinese brands have increased their market share from 38.5% in 2015 to 62.5% in 2024, while Japanese brands have declined from 18.1% in 2015 to 3.1% in 2024

Chinese brands’ NEV models have entered multiple global markets and have become the most competitive brands in the NEV market

BYD has become the global leader in NEVs, and furthermore, more Chinese brands are appearing in the top 10 rankings

China brands wholesaled 1.9M units (+13% MoM), EU-US brands 514K units (-1% MoM), and J-K brands 316K units (+5% MoM). As of Oct, China brands grew 21% YoY, while foreign brands declined 17% YoY.

In Oct, among the top 20 brands, BYD sold 483.4k (+20% MoM), ranking first; Tesla dropped 23% MoM, ranking tenth; Mercedes-Benz fell 19%.

In 2024, among the top 20 brands, BYD grew 36% YoY, exceeding 3M units. Volkswagen and Toyota declined 10% and 17%, respectively. Tesla’s cumulative sales reached 744k, down 4% YoY.

In Oct, ICE sales reached 1.357M (+7% MoM), PHEV/EREV sales hit 592K (+16% MoM), and BEV sales totaled 782K (+9% MoM). Over the first ten months, ICE sales declined 12% YoY, while PHEV/EREV and BEV grew 86% and 13%, respectively.

Top 10 brands by monthly sales by energy type

Top 10 brands by cumulative sales by energy type

In Oct, SUV sales hit 1.49M (+10% MoM); sedan sales were 1.135M (+9% MoM); MPV sales were 102K (+8% MoM). Over the first ten months, sedan sales declined 1% and MPV sales fell 8%, while SUV sales grew 9%.

Top 10 models by monthly sales by body type

Top 10 models by cumulative sales by body type

In 2024, China exported 859.3k units of BEVs, marking a decline of 10.3% for the first time. The export volume accounted for 22.4% of total sales, which is a decrease of 4.8 pct compared to 2023

The market share of local makers increased from 61% in 2020 to 71% in 2024, while the share of JV & FO makers dropped to 29%. New car maker startups, represented by NIO, Zeekr, and XPeng, have demonstrated strong momentum in the BEV market

In the BEV market, sedans still dominate, but the share of SUVs has now reached 41%. As makers gradually focus on the MPV sector, the MPV market shows significant potential for growth

By 2024, B-segment and above BEVs reached 44% market share. A00-segment went fully electric, A0-segment 50% BEV, and B+ segments over 20% BEV. This suggests significant growth potential in larger BEV segments

The market share of BEVs priced below 100k yuan is gradually declining, while the share of the 100k-200k yuan and 200k-300k yuan segments is rapidly increasing. In contrast, the market for BEVs priced above 300k yuan is growing slowly.

BEV battery demand continues rapid growth, reaching 361.9 GWh in 2024, up 26.2% YoY. However, growth in battery capacity per vehicle has entered a stable phase.

Currently, the battery energy density range for BEVs is concentrated between 125 to 160 Wh/kg. The increasing demand for low-cost LFP batteries has led to a significant decline in batteries with energy density above 160 Wh/kg

ICE exports were 281k units (-0.1% MoM), PHEV/EREV exports were 19k units (-3.6% MoM), and BEV exports were 86k units (+8.4% MoM).

• ICE remains the main export, but PHEV/EREV exports are rising fast. In Sept, ICE exports reached 281k (+15.1% YoY); PHEV/EREV exports were 19k (+645.8% YoY); BEV exports were 86k (+0.7% YoY).
• In the first 9 months, total ICE exports were 2,257k (+30% YoY); PHEV/EREV exports hit 178k (+298% YoY); BEV exports totaled 692k, flat YoY.

Sedan exports were 104k (+3.4% MoM), SUV exports were 270k (+1.5% MoM), and MPV exports were 7k (-33.2% MoM)

• By vehicle type, SUVs are the main export category, accounting for nearly 70% of the total. In the first nine months, cumulative exports reached 2,125k, a YoY increase of 20%. Sedan exports totaled 901k, up 40% YoY, while MPV exports reached 70k, with an increase of 86% YoY.

Top 20 passenger vehicle manufacturers by export volume

• Among the top 20 manufacturers by export volume, Chery, SAIC, and Geely rank 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, with cumulative export volumes of 543.1k, 372.8k, and 299k, respectively. However, due to the EU’s tariff increases, SAIC’s export volume, which is primarily focused on the European market, has decreased by 17.9% YoY.
• In recent years, BYD has made significant strides in the overseas market, with its cumulative export volume reaching 293.7k, representing a YoY increase of 101.8%.
• Tesla China has reported a cumulative export volume of 215.6k this year, down 18.8% YoY, while JV manufacturers such as Kia and Hyundai have also begun their export efforts.

Top 20 models by export volume

• The top three models by cumulative export volume are the Tesla Model 3 (147.4k, +68.2% YoY), MG ZS (111.5k, -29.3% YoY), and Chery Tiggo 7 (89.2k, +8.2% YoY). The Song Plus has become BYD’s best-exporting model, with a cumulative export volume of 70.6k in the first nine months, reflecting a YoY increase of 361%.
• Another Tesla model, the Model Y, saw its export volume drop to 68.2k this year, a YoY decrease of 53.7%.

As of Sept, the top 10 countries by cumulative export volume

• As of Sept, the top 3 countries in terms of cumulative exports of ICEs were Russia (722.2k, -5% YoY), Mexico (220.7k, +114% YoY), and the UAE (164.3k, +7% YoY).
• The top 3 countries in terms of cumulative exports of PHEVs were Brazil (71.7k, +282% YoY), Mexico (25.6k, +1871% YoY), and Uzbekistan (20.8k, +83% YoY).
• The top 3 countries in terms of cumulative exports of BEVs were Belgium (195.4k, +45% YoY), Thailand (85.4k, -26% YoY), and the UK (84.3k, -18% YoY).

• Production: In Sept, passenger vehicle production hit 2.42M units, down 1% YoY but up 12% MoM, 20K units lower than the 2023 peak of 2.44M. Cumulative production reached 18.14M units, up 2% YoY. Luxury brand production fell 7% MoM and 13% YoY; joint venture brand production dropped 32% MoM but rose 12% YoY; Chinese brand production grew 18% MoM and 17% YoY.
• Wholesale: In Sept, total passenger vehicle wholesale reached 2.504M units, up 2.1% YoY and 16.1% MoM, a new record. Cumulative wholesale totaled 18.37M units, up 3% YoY. Chinese brands wholesaled 1.69M units, up 22% YoY and 17% MoM. Joint ventures wholesaled 540K vehicles, down 29% YoY but up 17% MoM. Luxury brands wholesaled 280K units, down 8% YoY but up 10% MoM.

Chinese brands wholesaled 1.68M units (+17% MoM), EU-US brands 519K units (+13% MoM), and J-K brands 301K units (+16% MoM).

With the strong rise of Chinese brands, sales of EU-US, and J-K brands have gradually declined. As of September 2024, cumulative sales of Chinese brands reached 11.725M units, increasing their market share from 53.3% in 2023 to 63.8% this year. In contrast, the market share of EU-US brands fell from 27.8% to 23%, while J-K brands dropped from 15.9% to 13.2%.

Top 20 Brands Sales Ranking for the Month

• Due to the Sept sales peak and the last month of Q3, all brands saw MoM increases in wholesale volume.
• In the top 20 brands, BYD led with 401.6K units, followed by VW with 179K units, while Toyota fell to fourth, overtaken by Chery.
• Tesla wholesaled 88.3K units in Sept, a slight MoM increase of 2%. Nissan actively reduced inventory, with a Sept wholesale of 53.3K, up 71% MoM.

Top 20 Brands Cumulative Sales Ranking

• In terms of cumulative sales, mainstream joint venture brands, including Volkswagen and Toyota, saw varying degrees of decline in cumulative sales in 2024 compared to the previous year, primarily due to their reliance on ICE vehicles, which are gradually being replaced by new energy vehicles, while their own large systems are transforming too slowly.
• The only brands among the top twenty that showed year-on-year growth were Chinese brands, while luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi struggled on the sales front, with cumulative year-on-year declines.

In Sept, ICE sales reached 1.274M units (+15% MoM), PHEV/EREV sales hit 511K units (+11% MoM), and BEV sales totaled 720K units (+22% MoM)

ICE sales were 1.274M units (+15% MoM), but down 21% YoY. PHEV/EREV and BEV sales rose 90% and 28% YoY, respectively, setting record highs. Cumulatively, PHEV/EREV saw the fastest growth at 84%, with market share increasing from 10% last year to 18% this year, prompting most brands to enter this segment. Although BEV market growth continues, the rate is slowing, with market share rising from 23.2% last year to 24.8% this year. Meanwhile, cumulative ICE sales dropped 12%, with shares falling from 66.8% to 57.3%.

Top 10 Brands’ Monthly Sales by Energy Type

In September, the top ten brands by energy type saw varying degrees of MoM growth. Volkswagen, Toyota, and Chery ranked the top three in the ICE market, while BYD excelled in both the PHEV/EREV and BEV markets, leading both segments. Li Auto and Aito ranked 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in the PHEV/EREV market. In the BEV market, Tesla ranked 2nd with sales of 88.3K units, while XPeng saw a MoM increase of 52.1%, ranking 6th in the BEV market.

Top 10 Brands’ Cumulative Sales by Energy Type

• ICE market, only Chery and Geely saw YoY growth among the top ten, mainly due to increased ICE exports. Other brands experienced YoY declines, with Honda down ~30% and Toyota nearly 20%.
• PHEV/EREV market, BYD dominated with sales of 1,452.5K units, maintaining the top spot, while Denza fell 7%.
• BEV market, BYD grew 11.63%, Tesla declined 3.3% YoY, NIO increased 35%, and XPeng rose 29.5%.

SUV sales hit 1,360K (+16% MoM); sedan sales were 1,043K (+17% MoM); MPV sales were 95K (+14% MoM)

Driven by new car launches, the SUV market boomed, with sales of 1.306M units, a 16% MoM increase. The sedan market had sales of 1.043M units, up 17% MoM. The MPV market saw sales of 95K units, a 14% MoM increase. For cumulative sales in the first 9 months, SUVs reached 9.810M units, an 8% YoY growth. In contrast, the sedan market declined 2% YoY, with cumulative sales of 7.803M units. The MPV market remained sluggish, down 10% YoY.

Top 10 Monthly Sales Models by Vehicle Type

• In Sept, the top three best-selling sedans were all BYD models: Seagull, Qin L, and Seal 06, with MoM sales increases of 6%, 7.5%, and 5.7%, and monthly sales exceeding 40,000 units.
• The SUV market, Tesla Model Y ranked first with 51.2k units but saw a rare 9.2% MoM decline. BYD’s Song+, Yuan+, and Song L took the 2nd to 4th spots. Li Auto’s L6 entered the top ten.
• The MPV market, Denza D9 dropped 11.5% MoM, falling to second place, while Toyota’s Sienna ranked first.

Top 10 Models by Vehicle Body Type for Cumulative Sales

• For cumulative sales, the top three sedans were BYD Qin+ (329.9k), BYD Seagull (311.7k), and Tesla Model 3 (269.9k). Nissan Sylphy and VW Lavida dropped 6.1% and 16.5% YoY, respectively.
• The SUV market, Tesla Model Y fell 15.3% YoY, and BYD Yuan+ dropped 27.1%, while other models showed solid growth.
• The MPV market, all top ten models saw declines, with Buick GL8 down 50.5%, the largest drop. Denza D9’s cumulative sales also fell 9.9%

Price range of more than 200,000 yuan and B class is the core sales market.
Sales volume penetrate into non-restricted cities and the second and third lines have become an important incremental market.
Sales volume in 2022 will reach 1.4 million to 1.6 million.

Sales doubled in 2021 to exceed 800,000

In 2021, the sales volume of the price area of more than 200,000 yuan doubled and the sales volume scale exceeded 800,000 units, mainly with B-class models.

• With the improvement of household consumption level, China’s passenger car market shows an obvious trend of high-end. In recent years, the growth rate of the middle and high-end market is significantly higher than that of the whole.
• In the BEV market, driven by Tesla and other new power car companies, the middle and high-end market grew rapidly and the market size doubled to exceed 800,000 yuan in 2021.
• From the perspective of sales structure, it is mainly concentrated in the B \ C class market, among which class B sales market is the core sales market of the middle and high-end BEV car market.

Sales volume penetrate into non-restricted cities and the second and third lines have become an important incremental market.

The size of purchase restrictions is limited and the second and third tier will become the main incremental market of high-end new energy in the future.

• High-level cities have always been the main marketing market of high-end BEV, but the first-tier cities are all cities with purchase restrictions. Relatively speaking, the market size is limited and the sales volume of high-end BEV in the second and third cities has been rapidly increasing, which has become an important incremental market for high-end new energy.
• With the improvement of charging and other infrastructure and the improvement of user acceptance, the sales volume in second-and third-tier cities will be rapidly exploded, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and provincial capitals.

The replacement effect of BEV on fuel vehicles began to penetrate from the high end of the market.

In the high-end market, electric vehicles and fuel vehicles are basically parity and the advantages of high-performance and super-intelligence are prominent. BEV has ushered in the market inflection point of replacing fuel vehicles.

• The Model 3 and BMW 3 are close in size, but the MODEL 3 has more advantages in performance, energy consumption, purchase cost and so on.
• In 2021, autonomous driving has ushered in the first year of commercialization. Enterprises begin to look for the scene landing. The more high-end models are, the more higher-level autonomous driving functions are pursued.

Centralized product placement, the high-end market competition is white-hot.

At present, the sales volume focuses on 250,000-350,000 price area and the competition in the price area above 350,000 price area will gradually become hot.

• More than 200,000 yuan market is mainly intelligent, has emerged Model 3, Model Y, P7, Han and other star models, but are concentrated in 250,000-350,000 price area.
• Nio and HiPhi have made certain breakthroughs in the price area of more than 350,000. In the future, with the promotion of BBA electric transformation, the high-end of independent brands and the influx of new power brands, the products are centralized release and the competition in the price area of more than 350,000 will gradually become hot.

Model Y breaks the pricing rules and starts the sales harvest mode.

Tesla breaks the traditional fuel car pricing rules, outstanding price advantage, harvest SUV dividend.

• Since the launch of Model Y, with the gradual increase of production capacity, the sales volume has continued to rise. In September 2021, it surpassed Haval H6 to become the sales champion in the SUV market.

Intelligent support, Xpeng P7 sales nearly ten thousand.

Users in the mid-to-high end market have a stronger perception of value. Under the blessing of intelligent tag, the sales volume of Xpeng continues to rise.

• Xpeng P7, listing in April 2020, after many OTA and with new models join, cumulative sales volume in 2021 attained 60,000 units.
• The orientation of Xpeng is the mid-to-high end, mainly focus on intelligence. Xpeng P7 adopts SEPA intelligent electric platform architecture and continues to upgrade to deepen the intelligent label.

Competitive subjects accelerate their product layout.

Competitive enterprises are divided into four factions: head new power / independent high-end / new enterprises / traditional luxury, from high to low layout products.

• The first three factions innovate from layout strategy, category differentiation and other dimensions and traditional luxury maintains thinking layout products in the field of fuel vehicles.

Overseas luxury brands seize the middle and high-end market share.

Independent brands are still the main body of the BEV market, but the overseas brands represented by Tesla are gradually seizing the high-end market share.

• Traditional car companies are represented by BYD, GreatWall and Wuling Hongguang and their launched models focus on the price area of less than 200,000 yuan, focusing on the mass market.
• Nio, Xpeng and other new power car companies maintain the pace of launching a model every year, focusing on the market of more than 200,000 yuan.
• Among overseas brands, Tesla, as a benchmark brand, has seen steady and rapid growth in sales volume, while the e-tron and EQC launched by BBA have not yet aroused warm feedback from the market due to its pricing and product launch logic that still follow the traditional logic.

The delivery volume of new car-building forces continues to break through, showing a bright performance.

In 2021, the new power of car manufacturing developed rapidly, with monthly sales continuously exceeding 10,000 units and annual sales of nearly 100,000 units.

• In 2021, the delivery volume of new car manufacturing forces such as Nio, Xpeng and Lixiang will continue to break through and the monthly delivery volume continuously exceed 10,000 units, with the annual sales volume of nearly 100,000 units.
• Annual sales of 100,000 units is usually considered as a sign that a business is on track. Compared to the development process of Tesla, Tesla achieved sales of 100,000 units in five years, but the annual sales volume reached 250,000 units in the next year and made a profit from the third quarter from the following year.

Sales volume in 2022 will reach 1.4 million to 1.6 million.

The market growth of more than 200,000 yuan price area is rapid and the innovative BEV products lead the sales growth. The sales volume scale may reach 1.4 million to 1.6 million yuan in 2022.

• Consistent with the high-end trend of the traditional fuel vehicle market, the BEV market has an obvious trend of high-end. The sales volume reaches 800,000 yuan in 2021 and focuses on the 250,000-350,000 price area market.
• At present, the demand of the high-end market is strong. With the intensive release of products, the sales volume will continue to grow. The market of over 350,000 price area has exploded rapidly and the overall market size will reach 1.4 million-1.6 million in 2022.