The New Energy Vehicle market achieved total sales of 12.2 million units, representing a YoY growth of 37.1% and a market penetration rate of 45%.

Throughout 2024, New Energy Vehicle exports reached 1.089 million units, reflecting a YoY growth of 5.4%, with the export growth rate slowing down.

The growth rates for PHEV, EREV, and BEV were 88%, 79%, and 15%, respectively. Although BEVs still held 57.9% of the NEV market share, this marked a decline of 23.7 pcts compared to 2020

Chinese brands captured 81% of the NEV market share, an increase of 20 pct over five years. In contrast, JV brands lagged in product launches, leading to a significant decline in their market share

The NEV market has grown rapidly in the B-segment and above, with penetration rates reaching 48% in the B-segment and 67% in the C/D-segment.
The intensive launch of A-segment NEVs in late 2024 is expected to drive rapid growth in this segment by 2025

NEV SUV and sedan markets maintained rapid growth, while MPVs gradually gained attention. Among the top 10 best-selling models in each category in 2024, 6 out of 10 sedan models, 4 out of 10 SUV models, and 3 out of 10 MPV models were NEVs

BYD achieved rapid growth, with remarkable success in the NEV market. Tesla’s 2024 sales declined 3%, yet maintained second place. Li Auto and AITO also entered the top five

CATL and BYD account for 70% of the power battery market’s installed capacity, with LFP being adopted by more manufacturers

China brands wholesaled 1.9M units (+13% MoM), EU-US brands 514K units (-1% MoM), and J-K brands 316K units (+5% MoM). As of Oct, China brands grew 21% YoY, while foreign brands declined 17% YoY.

In Oct, among the top 20 brands, BYD sold 483.4k (+20% MoM), ranking first; Tesla dropped 23% MoM, ranking tenth; Mercedes-Benz fell 19%.

In 2024, among the top 20 brands, BYD grew 36% YoY, exceeding 3M units. Volkswagen and Toyota declined 10% and 17%, respectively. Tesla’s cumulative sales reached 744k, down 4% YoY.

In Oct, ICE sales reached 1.357M (+7% MoM), PHEV/EREV sales hit 592K (+16% MoM), and BEV sales totaled 782K (+9% MoM). Over the first ten months, ICE sales declined 12% YoY, while PHEV/EREV and BEV grew 86% and 13%, respectively.

Top 10 brands by monthly sales by energy type

Top 10 brands by cumulative sales by energy type

In Oct, SUV sales hit 1.49M (+10% MoM); sedan sales were 1.135M (+9% MoM); MPV sales were 102K (+8% MoM). Over the first ten months, sedan sales declined 1% and MPV sales fell 8%, while SUV sales grew 9%.

Top 10 models by monthly sales by body type

Top 10 models by cumulative sales by body type

In 2024, China exported 859.3k units of BEVs, marking a decline of 10.3% for the first time. The export volume accounted for 22.4% of total sales, which is a decrease of 4.8 pct compared to 2023

The market share of local makers increased from 61% in 2020 to 71% in 2024, while the share of JV & FO makers dropped to 29%. New car maker startups, represented by NIO, Zeekr, and XPeng, have demonstrated strong momentum in the BEV market

In the BEV market, sedans still dominate, but the share of SUVs has now reached 41%. As makers gradually focus on the MPV sector, the MPV market shows significant potential for growth

By 2024, B-segment and above BEVs reached 44% market share. A00-segment went fully electric, A0-segment 50% BEV, and B+ segments over 20% BEV. This suggests significant growth potential in larger BEV segments

The market share of BEVs priced below 100k yuan is gradually declining, while the share of the 100k-200k yuan and 200k-300k yuan segments is rapidly increasing. In contrast, the market for BEVs priced above 300k yuan is growing slowly.

BEV battery demand continues rapid growth, reaching 361.9 GWh in 2024, up 26.2% YoY. However, growth in battery capacity per vehicle has entered a stable phase.

Currently, the battery energy density range for BEVs is concentrated between 125 to 160 Wh/kg. The increasing demand for low-cost LFP batteries has led to a significant decline in batteries with energy density above 160 Wh/kg

ICE exports were 281k units (-0.1% MoM), PHEV/EREV exports were 19k units (-3.6% MoM), and BEV exports were 86k units (+8.4% MoM).

• ICE remains the main export, but PHEV/EREV exports are rising fast. In Sept, ICE exports reached 281k (+15.1% YoY); PHEV/EREV exports were 19k (+645.8% YoY); BEV exports were 86k (+0.7% YoY).
• In the first 9 months, total ICE exports were 2,257k (+30% YoY); PHEV/EREV exports hit 178k (+298% YoY); BEV exports totaled 692k, flat YoY.

Sedan exports were 104k (+3.4% MoM), SUV exports were 270k (+1.5% MoM), and MPV exports were 7k (-33.2% MoM)

• By vehicle type, SUVs are the main export category, accounting for nearly 70% of the total. In the first nine months, cumulative exports reached 2,125k, a YoY increase of 20%. Sedan exports totaled 901k, up 40% YoY, while MPV exports reached 70k, with an increase of 86% YoY.

Top 20 passenger vehicle manufacturers by export volume

• Among the top 20 manufacturers by export volume, Chery, SAIC, and Geely rank 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, with cumulative export volumes of 543.1k, 372.8k, and 299k, respectively. However, due to the EU’s tariff increases, SAIC’s export volume, which is primarily focused on the European market, has decreased by 17.9% YoY.
• In recent years, BYD has made significant strides in the overseas market, with its cumulative export volume reaching 293.7k, representing a YoY increase of 101.8%.
• Tesla China has reported a cumulative export volume of 215.6k this year, down 18.8% YoY, while JV manufacturers such as Kia and Hyundai have also begun their export efforts.

Top 20 models by export volume

• The top three models by cumulative export volume are the Tesla Model 3 (147.4k, +68.2% YoY), MG ZS (111.5k, -29.3% YoY), and Chery Tiggo 7 (89.2k, +8.2% YoY). The Song Plus has become BYD’s best-exporting model, with a cumulative export volume of 70.6k in the first nine months, reflecting a YoY increase of 361%.
• Another Tesla model, the Model Y, saw its export volume drop to 68.2k this year, a YoY decrease of 53.7%.

As of Sept, the top 10 countries by cumulative export volume

• As of Sept, the top 3 countries in terms of cumulative exports of ICEs were Russia (722.2k, -5% YoY), Mexico (220.7k, +114% YoY), and the UAE (164.3k, +7% YoY).
• The top 3 countries in terms of cumulative exports of PHEVs were Brazil (71.7k, +282% YoY), Mexico (25.6k, +1871% YoY), and Uzbekistan (20.8k, +83% YoY).
• The top 3 countries in terms of cumulative exports of BEVs were Belgium (195.4k, +45% YoY), Thailand (85.4k, -26% YoY), and the UK (84.3k, -18% YoY).

• Production: In Sept, passenger vehicle production hit 2.42M units, down 1% YoY but up 12% MoM, 20K units lower than the 2023 peak of 2.44M. Cumulative production reached 18.14M units, up 2% YoY. Luxury brand production fell 7% MoM and 13% YoY; joint venture brand production dropped 32% MoM but rose 12% YoY; Chinese brand production grew 18% MoM and 17% YoY.
• Wholesale: In Sept, total passenger vehicle wholesale reached 2.504M units, up 2.1% YoY and 16.1% MoM, a new record. Cumulative wholesale totaled 18.37M units, up 3% YoY. Chinese brands wholesaled 1.69M units, up 22% YoY and 17% MoM. Joint ventures wholesaled 540K vehicles, down 29% YoY but up 17% MoM. Luxury brands wholesaled 280K units, down 8% YoY but up 10% MoM.

Chinese brands wholesaled 1.68M units (+17% MoM), EU-US brands 519K units (+13% MoM), and J-K brands 301K units (+16% MoM).

With the strong rise of Chinese brands, sales of EU-US, and J-K brands have gradually declined. As of September 2024, cumulative sales of Chinese brands reached 11.725M units, increasing their market share from 53.3% in 2023 to 63.8% this year. In contrast, the market share of EU-US brands fell from 27.8% to 23%, while J-K brands dropped from 15.9% to 13.2%.

Top 20 Brands Sales Ranking for the Month

• Due to the Sept sales peak and the last month of Q3, all brands saw MoM increases in wholesale volume.
• In the top 20 brands, BYD led with 401.6K units, followed by VW with 179K units, while Toyota fell to fourth, overtaken by Chery.
• Tesla wholesaled 88.3K units in Sept, a slight MoM increase of 2%. Nissan actively reduced inventory, with a Sept wholesale of 53.3K, up 71% MoM.

Top 20 Brands Cumulative Sales Ranking

• In terms of cumulative sales, mainstream joint venture brands, including Volkswagen and Toyota, saw varying degrees of decline in cumulative sales in 2024 compared to the previous year, primarily due to their reliance on ICE vehicles, which are gradually being replaced by new energy vehicles, while their own large systems are transforming too slowly.
• The only brands among the top twenty that showed year-on-year growth were Chinese brands, while luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi struggled on the sales front, with cumulative year-on-year declines.

In Sept, ICE sales reached 1.274M units (+15% MoM), PHEV/EREV sales hit 511K units (+11% MoM), and BEV sales totaled 720K units (+22% MoM)

ICE sales were 1.274M units (+15% MoM), but down 21% YoY. PHEV/EREV and BEV sales rose 90% and 28% YoY, respectively, setting record highs. Cumulatively, PHEV/EREV saw the fastest growth at 84%, with market share increasing from 10% last year to 18% this year, prompting most brands to enter this segment. Although BEV market growth continues, the rate is slowing, with market share rising from 23.2% last year to 24.8% this year. Meanwhile, cumulative ICE sales dropped 12%, with shares falling from 66.8% to 57.3%.

Top 10 Brands’ Monthly Sales by Energy Type

In September, the top ten brands by energy type saw varying degrees of MoM growth. Volkswagen, Toyota, and Chery ranked the top three in the ICE market, while BYD excelled in both the PHEV/EREV and BEV markets, leading both segments. Li Auto and Aito ranked 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in the PHEV/EREV market. In the BEV market, Tesla ranked 2nd with sales of 88.3K units, while XPeng saw a MoM increase of 52.1%, ranking 6th in the BEV market.

Top 10 Brands’ Cumulative Sales by Energy Type

• ICE market, only Chery and Geely saw YoY growth among the top ten, mainly due to increased ICE exports. Other brands experienced YoY declines, with Honda down ~30% and Toyota nearly 20%.
• PHEV/EREV market, BYD dominated with sales of 1,452.5K units, maintaining the top spot, while Denza fell 7%.
• BEV market, BYD grew 11.63%, Tesla declined 3.3% YoY, NIO increased 35%, and XPeng rose 29.5%.

SUV sales hit 1,360K (+16% MoM); sedan sales were 1,043K (+17% MoM); MPV sales were 95K (+14% MoM)

Driven by new car launches, the SUV market boomed, with sales of 1.306M units, a 16% MoM increase. The sedan market had sales of 1.043M units, up 17% MoM. The MPV market saw sales of 95K units, a 14% MoM increase. For cumulative sales in the first 9 months, SUVs reached 9.810M units, an 8% YoY growth. In contrast, the sedan market declined 2% YoY, with cumulative sales of 7.803M units. The MPV market remained sluggish, down 10% YoY.

Top 10 Monthly Sales Models by Vehicle Type

• In Sept, the top three best-selling sedans were all BYD models: Seagull, Qin L, and Seal 06, with MoM sales increases of 6%, 7.5%, and 5.7%, and monthly sales exceeding 40,000 units.
• The SUV market, Tesla Model Y ranked first with 51.2k units but saw a rare 9.2% MoM decline. BYD’s Song+, Yuan+, and Song L took the 2nd to 4th spots. Li Auto’s L6 entered the top ten.
• The MPV market, Denza D9 dropped 11.5% MoM, falling to second place, while Toyota’s Sienna ranked first.

Top 10 Models by Vehicle Body Type for Cumulative Sales

• For cumulative sales, the top three sedans were BYD Qin+ (329.9k), BYD Seagull (311.7k), and Tesla Model 3 (269.9k). Nissan Sylphy and VW Lavida dropped 6.1% and 16.5% YoY, respectively.
• The SUV market, Tesla Model Y fell 15.3% YoY, and BYD Yuan+ dropped 27.1%, while other models showed solid growth.
• The MPV market, all top ten models saw declines, with Buick GL8 down 50.5%, the largest drop. Denza D9’s cumulative sales also fell 9.9%

In contrast to the stable expansion of the pure EV sector, plug-in hybrid vehicles have risen as an unexpected contender. In 2023, the segment recorded cumulative sales of 2.369 million units, realizing an impressive YOY surge of 85.3% in growth rate, with a market penetration of 10.9%, thus spearheading the industry’s growth.

Reviewing the annual sales performance, following the surge in the EV market in 2020, the plug-in hybrid market was subsequently ignited. It is currently in a period of product abundance and is experiencing rapid growth.

The plug-in vehicle market has experienced substantial transformation following years of swift advancement.

• Despite the stellar performance of the plug-in vehicle market, there is a significant internal disparity within the sector.
• Salient features of the plug-in market include: (1) SUVs outperform sedans; (2) Entry-level segments face constraints, lacking market entries; (3) High-tier sedans show diminishing annual performance, unlike SUVs which improve with higher tiers; (4) EV ranges are growing, with around 100 km becoming standard, though longer ranges fare better.

The EREV market is invigorated by Li Auto, which, with its exceptional cost-performance ratio, precisely captures market share from BBA incumbents.

Post-launch, Li Auto continues to dominate the plug-in hybrid market in the 300K RMB and above price segment.

• Data indicates that the launch of Li Auto’s extended-range vehicles has broken the monopoly held by BBA in the market segment above 300,000 RMB, with their L series emerging as a blockbuster product.

The plug-in vehicle market adheres to a tiered city penetration model, with PHEVs’ tendency towards gasoline power contributing to their swift penetration into lower-tier markets.

• The plug-in vehicle market exhibits a structured penetration across urban tiers, with first- and second-tier cities serving as the primary engine for growth and channeling development momentum to third- and fourth-tier cities.
• Examining PHEV and EREV trends, PHEVs are penetrating rapidly across all city tiers, with little difference in penetration rates, as some users in lower-tier cities view PHEVs akin to gasoline vehicles. EREVs, facing higher mainstream product prices and increased reliance on charging infrastructure for their extended range, are primarily gaining ground in higher-tier cities.

Mainstream consumer attention varies significantly.

• The purchasing considerations of mainstream PHEV and EREV consumers differ. PHEV buyers lean more towards the characteristics of conventional vehicles, with a keen pursuit of cost-effectiveness and a desire for distinctive new-energy features in their cars; EREV buyers, on the other hand, tend to be additional purchasers who experience some range anxiety but prefer the smooth driving dynamics and robust power of all-electric vehicles, thus their focus is more aligned with pure EVs.

Short-term forecasts show the 100-200k plug-in segment outpacing pure EVs, with sustained growth into 2024.

• Beginning in H2 2023, numerous automakers will roll out plug-ins within the 100-200k bracket. Balancing cost and consumer appeal, plug-ins are poised for a competitive edge in this price segment in the near to mid-term.
• The current plug-in market in the 100-200k bracket has evolved into a ‘one leader, multiple strong contenders’ competitive landscape, with mainstream players like BYD, Geely, and Changan, traditional automakers expected to dominate in 2024. Additionally, the steady flow of new models from other enterprises will further fuel continuous high growth in this price range.

The plug-in market shows a distinct advantage in the 100-150k sedan segment and the 150-200k SUV segment.

• The 100-200k price range dominates the plug-in market with over half the share, chiefly driven by 100-150k sedans and 150-200k SUVs accounting for nearly 90% of sales. Plug-in vehicle penetration is on a swift rise, rapidly displacing fuel vehicles.

BYD dominates the 100-200K price segment in the plug-in market.

• The 100-200K price range is BYD’s stronghold in the plug-in market, with models like Qin Plus DM, Destroyer 05 DM, and Song Plus DM and Song Pro DM leading their respective segments.

Recognizing the plug-in market’s vast potential, 2024 is set to see a significant influx of products from a myriad of companies.

• Currently, the plug-in market is chiefly concentrated in the 100-250K price range, with BYD products setting the competitive benchmark in the PHEV sector, notably within the mainstream Class-A segment which is rapidly refreshing its lineup. Extended-range models, predominantly from the Deepal series, are engaged in direct competition with PHEVs.
• In the market above 250K, range-extender products prevail, with AITO’s updated lineup challenging Li Auto’s predominant position. Nearly 50 new models are set to enter the market in 2024, likely fueling rapid market growth.

Demand for enhanced electric-only range in plug-ins is escalating, with PHEVs set to parallel the extensive range of BEVs in the future.

• From 2021 to 2023, plug-in vehicles with 100-120km ranges lead the market, catering to most household needs. Ranges of 150-200km have risen sharply with new entrants like Li Auto, AITO, and Deepal S7. Later in 2023, PHEVs such as Lynk&Co 08 and Tang Champion Edition surpassed 200km, reaching parity with the longest-range vehicles.
• Data research has revealed that if a product’s pure electric range is rated at CLTC 100 kilometers, it would only meet the needs of 17% of users. If rated at CLTC 200 kilometers, it could satisfy 65% of users, and a rating of CLTC 231 kilometers would meet the needs of 80% of users.