The selling prices of SUV models in the C/D segment market mainly concentrate within the range of 250k to 350k (>70%).
Among them, EREV models represented by Li Auto and AITO account for more than 50% of the market share, while models account for 18% of the share.

In the main target market of the L90, the AITO M9 EREV and Li L9 EREV hold an absolute dominant position. Among pure electric models, the ES8, NIO’s current flagship SUV, has a starting price as high as 500k RMB, lagging significantly in sales compared to the AITO M9 EV and Xpeng X9 EV. For the L90 to enter this market, the pricing of its products will be crucial.

Based on the fact that EREV dominates this niche market and the preliminary simulation of the competitive relationship between ONVO L90 and its competitors, the reasonable pricing range for L90 is 299,800 – 349,800 RMB.
Its annual sales volume benchmark is expected to be 30,000 – 35,000 units, and optimistically, it will reach 40,000 – 50,000 units.

The <100K RMB price range dominates A0 segment sales. In the 100K-150K RMB range where NIO Firefly competes, its market share dropped from 47.8% (2022) to 19.9% (Jan-Feb 2025). Meanwhile, the >150K RMB range saw its share fall to 4.3%, with the top two models (smart#1 and mini EV) selling fewer than 3,000 units combined in the first two months of 2025.

NIO Firefly currently has a pre-sale price of 148,800 yuan, but its performance in the A0 segment has not been particularly strong. The majority of sales in this segment are concentrated below 100,000 yuan, represented by models like the BYD Dolphin and Geely Xingyuan. However, compared to key competitors such as the Smart #1 and Mini EV, the Firefly offers a competitive price advantage.

Based on the competitive environment, transaction prices, and sales volume in this segment over the past year, sensitivity analysis simulations show that if NIO Firefly is officially priced at 148,800 yuan, its average monthly sales volume is projected to be approximately 916 units. At a price of 128,800 yuan, monthly sales would rise to 1,388 units, and at 108,800 yuan, the average monthly volume would reach 2,386 units.