NIO – ThinkerCarResearch https://thinkercarresearch.com Mon, 26 May 2025 09:18:15 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.1 https://thinkercarresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/cropped-ThinkerCar-32x32.png NIO – ThinkerCarResearch https://thinkercarresearch.com 32 32 NIO Q1 Revenue Drop & Model Sales Plunge https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/04/17/nio-q1-revenue-drop-model-sales-plunge/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/04/17/nio-q1-revenue-drop-model-sales-plunge/#respond Thu, 17 Apr 2025 11:38:12 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=490 The SUV market in the C/D segment in China has been developing at a rapid pace in recent years, showing a growth rate of more than two digits each year from 2020 to 2024. It is estimated that the total retail volume of this segment’s market will reach 1,610k units in 2025, representing a YoY growth of 30.6%.

The selling prices of SUV models in the C/D segment market mainly concentrate within the range of 250k to 350k (>70%).
Among them, EREV models represented by Li Auto and AITO account for more than 50% of the market share, while models account for 18% of the share.

In the main target market of the L90, the AITO M9 EREV and Li L9 EREV hold an absolute dominant position. Among pure electric models, the ES8, NIO’s current flagship SUV, has a starting price as high as 500k RMB, lagging significantly in sales compared to the AITO M9 EV and Xpeng X9 EV. For the L90 to enter this market, the pricing of its products will be crucial.

Based on the fact that EREV dominates this niche market and the preliminary simulation of the competitive relationship between ONVO L90 and its competitors, the reasonable pricing range for L90 is 299,800 – 349,800 RMB.
Its annual sales volume benchmark is expected to be 30,000 – 35,000 units, and optimistically, it will reach 40,000 – 50,000 units.

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NIO & Onvo Channel Integration Crisis https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/14/nio-onvo-channel-integration-crisis/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/14/nio-onvo-channel-integration-crisis/#respond Fri, 14 Mar 2025 13:09:11 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=375 Since the Onvo L60 began deliveries last September, its sales have not brought a qualitative improvement to NIO. In the BEV market, NIO’s market share has dropped from a peak of 4.1% last year to around 2.7-2.8% currently.
NIO’s mainstay models EC6+ES6 also experienced a 14.7% YoY decline in sales during the first two months of this year due to the Onvo L60.

Since H2 2024, NIO’s channel has expanded purchase incentives for ES6/EC6—meanwhile, Onvo’s separate channel added L60 incentives in January 2025. However, the sub-brand’s promotions failed to generate any cross-channel spillover for NIO’s lineup, which is also a disadvantage of the dual-channel strategy.

While NIO and its sub-brand Onvo operate separate channel networks (589 vs. 300 stores), their monthly average sales per store—14.5 units for NIO and 16.6 units for Onvo—trail far behind competitors like Li Auto and XPeng. This dual-channel structure makes cross-brand channel integration NIO’s urgent priority.

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CATL Battery Market Trend https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/02/19/2025-catl-battery-market-trend/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/02/19/2025-catl-battery-market-trend/#respond Wed, 19 Feb 2025 09:24:56 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=164 In 2024, CATL’s battery usage in China’s passenger vehicle market reached 223 GWh, securing the top position with a market share of 43.3%.

In 2024, CATL’s usage of ternary lithium and LFP batteries accounted for 61% and 39%, respectively. The usage of ternary lithium batteries represented 70.2% of the overall market, solidifying CATL’s dominant position. Meanwhile, the usage of LFP batteries accounted for 27.1% of the total market.

In the 2024 BEV market, CATL installed approximately 1.3M battery packs with 125-140Wh/kg energy density, followed by 784K vehicles equipped with >160Wh/kg battery packs. In the PHEV/EREV market, 458k vehicles were equipped with 140-160Wh/kg battery packs, and 375k vehicles with >160Wh/kg battery packs.

Tesla’s usage reached 37.6GWh, making it CATL’s top partner, accounting for 16.9% of CATL’s total usage. NIO and Aito ranked 2nd and 3rd, while Xiaomi held the 7th position.

In 2024, Tesla Model Y EV ranked first in CATL battery usage, reaching 26.6 GWh. Xiaomi SU7 and Tesla Model 3 ranked second and third with battery usage of 11.4 GWh and 10.9 GWh respectively.

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2024 Battery Electric Vehicle Market in China Report https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/10/15/2024-battery-electric-vehicle-market-in-china-report/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/10/15/2024-battery-electric-vehicle-market-in-china-report/#respond Tue, 15 Oct 2024 08:27:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=460 In 2024, China’s BEV sales hit 7.05 million units, growing 15.1% YoY and representing 26% of the total passenger vehicle market

In 2024, China exported 859.3k units of BEVs, marking a decline of 10.3% for the first time. The export volume accounted for 22.4% of total sales, which is a decrease of 4.8 pct compared to 2023

The market share of local makers increased from 61% in 2020 to 71% in 2024, while the share of JV & FO makers dropped to 29%. New car maker startups, represented by NIO, Zeekr, and XPeng, have demonstrated strong momentum in the BEV market

In the BEV market, sedans still dominate, but the share of SUVs has now reached 41%. As makers gradually focus on the MPV sector, the MPV market shows significant potential for growth

By 2024, B-segment and above BEVs reached 44% market share. A00-segment went fully electric, A0-segment 50% BEV, and B+ segments over 20% BEV. This suggests significant growth potential in larger BEV segments

The market share of BEVs priced below 100k yuan is gradually declining, while the share of the 100k-200k yuan and 200k-300k yuan segments is rapidly increasing. In contrast, the market for BEVs priced above 300k yuan is growing slowly.

BEV battery demand continues rapid growth, reaching 361.9 GWh in 2024, up 26.2% YoY. However, growth in battery capacity per vehicle has entered a stable phase.

Currently, the battery energy density range for BEVs is concentrated between 125 to 160 Wh/kg. The increasing demand for low-cost LFP batteries has led to a significant decline in batteries with energy density above 160 Wh/kg

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Analysis And Outlook Of The Mid-end And High-end BEV Market https://thinkercarresearch.com/2022/01/08/analysis-and-outlook-of-the-mid-end-andhigh-end-bev-market-in-2021/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2022/01/08/analysis-and-outlook-of-the-mid-end-andhigh-end-bev-market-in-2021/#respond Sat, 08 Jan 2022 07:52:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=336 The rapid growth of the middle and high-end BEV market will usher in an outbreak period.

Price range of more than 200,000 yuan and B class is the core sales market.
Sales volume penetrate into non-restricted cities and the second and third lines have become an important incremental market.
Sales volume in 2022 will reach 1.4 million to 1.6 million.

Sales doubled in 2021 to exceed 800,000

In 2021, the sales volume of the price area of more than 200,000 yuan doubled and the sales volume scale exceeded 800,000 units, mainly with B-class models.
  • With the improvement of household consumption level, China’s passenger car market shows an obvious trend of high-end. In recent years, the growth rate of the middle and high-end market is significantly higher than that of the whole.
  • In the BEV market, driven by Tesla and other new power car companies, the middle and high-end market grew rapidly and the market size doubled to exceed 800,000 yuan in 2021.
  • From the perspective of sales structure, it is mainly concentrated in the B \ C class market, among which class B sales market is the core sales market of the middle and high-end BEV car market.

Sales volume penetrate into non-restricted cities and the second and third lines have become an important incremental market.

The size of purchase restrictions is limited and the second and third tier will become the main incremental market of high-end new energy in the future.
  • High-level cities have always been the main marketing market of high-end BEV, but the first-tier cities are all cities with purchase restrictions. Relatively speaking, the market size is limited and the sales volume of high-end BEV in the second and third cities has been rapidly increasing, which has become an important incremental market for high-end new energy.
  • With the improvement of charging and other infrastructure and the improvement of user acceptance, the sales volume in second-and third-tier cities will be rapidly exploded, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and provincial capitals.

The replacement effect of BEV on fuel vehicles began to penetrate from the high end of the market.

In the high-end market, electric vehicles and fuel vehicles are basically parity and the advantages of high-performance and super-intelligence are prominent. BEV has ushered in the market inflection point of replacing fuel vehicles.
  • The Model 3 and BMW 3 are close in size, but the MODEL 3 has more advantages in performance, energy consumption, purchase cost and so on.
  • In 2021, autonomous driving has ushered in the first year of commercialization. Enterprises begin to look for the scene landing. The more high-end models are, the more higher-level autonomous driving functions are pursued.

Centralized product placement, the high-end market competition is white-hot.

At present, the sales volume focuses on 250,000-350,000 price area and the competition in the price area above 350,000 price area will gradually become hot.
  • More than 200,000 yuan market is mainly intelligent, has emerged Model 3, Model Y, P7, Han and other star models, but are concentrated in 250,000-350,000 price area.
  • Nio and HiPhi have made certain breakthroughs in the price area of more than 350,000. In the future, with the promotion of BBA electric transformation, the high-end of independent brands and the influx of new power brands, the products are centralized release and the competition in the price area of more than 350,000 will gradually become hot.

Model Y breaks the pricing rules and starts the sales harvest mode.

Tesla breaks the traditional fuel car pricing rules, outstanding price advantage, harvest SUV dividend.
  • Since the launch of Model Y, with the gradual increase of production capacity, the sales volume has continued to rise. In September 2021, it surpassed Haval H6 to become the sales champion in the SUV market.

Intelligent support, Xpeng P7 sales nearly ten thousand.

Users in the mid-to-high end market have a stronger perception of value. Under the blessing of intelligent tag, the sales volume of Xpeng continues to rise.
  • Xpeng P7, listing in April 2020, after many OTA and with new models join, cumulative sales volume in 2021 attained 60,000 units.
  • The orientation of Xpeng is the mid-to-high end, mainly focus on intelligence. Xpeng P7 adopts SEPA intelligent electric platform architecture and continues to upgrade to deepen the intelligent label.

Competitive subjects accelerate their product layout.

Competitive enterprises are divided into four factions: head new power / independent high-end / new enterprises / traditional luxury, from high to low layout products.
  • The first three factions innovate from layout strategy, category differentiation and other dimensions and traditional luxury maintains thinking layout products in the field of fuel vehicles.

Overseas luxury brands seize the middle and high-end market share.

Independent brands are still the main body of the BEV market, but the overseas brands represented by Tesla are gradually seizing the high-end market share.
  • Traditional car companies are represented by BYD, GreatWall and Wuling Hongguang and their launched models focus on the price area of less than 200,000 yuan, focusing on the mass market.
  • Nio, Xpeng and other new power car companies maintain the pace of launching a model every year, focusing on the market of more than 200,000 yuan.
  • Among overseas brands, Tesla, as a benchmark brand, has seen steady and rapid growth in sales volume, while the e-tron and EQC launched by BBA have not yet aroused warm feedback from the market due to its pricing and product launch logic that still follow the traditional logic.

The delivery volume of new car-building forces continues to break through, showing a bright performance.

In 2021, the new power of car manufacturing developed rapidly, with monthly sales continuously exceeding 10,000 units and annual sales of nearly 100,000 units.
  • In 2021, the delivery volume of new car manufacturing forces such as Nio, Xpeng and Lixiang will continue to break through and the monthly delivery volume continuously exceed 10,000 units, with the annual sales volume of nearly 100,000 units.
  • Annual sales of 100,000 units is usually considered as a sign that a business is on track. Compared to the development process of Tesla, Tesla achieved sales of 100,000 units in five years, but the annual sales volume reached 250,000 units in the next year and made a profit from the third quarter from the following year.

Sales volume in 2022 will reach 1.4 million to 1.6 million.

The market growth of more than 200,000 yuan price area is rapid and the innovative BEV products lead the sales growth. The sales volume scale may reach 1.4 million to 1.6 million yuan in 2022.
  • Consistent with the high-end trend of the traditional fuel vehicle market, the BEV market has an obvious trend of high-end. The sales volume reaches 800,000 yuan in 2021 and focuses on the 250,000-350,000 price area market.
  • At present, the demand of the high-end market is strong. With the intensive release of products, the sales volume will continue to grow. The market of over 350,000 price area has exploded rapidly and the overall market size will reach 1.4 million-1.6 million in 2022.
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BMBS 2022 – 2031 Capacity Analysis https://thinkercarresearch.com/2021/12/22/bmbs-2022-2031-capacity-analysis/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2021/12/22/bmbs-2022-2031-capacity-analysis/#respond Wed, 22 Dec 2021 17:36:00 +0000 http://thinkercarresearch.com:8080/?p=7 Emerging OEMs such as NIO and XPENG announced battery leasing products to lower the purchasing threshold and enhance the customer acceptance on NEV

Vehicle financing business expands from vehicle to key components due to the development of NEV market increase since 2016; In 2020, new polices clearly encouraged the development battery rental/leasing mode

Currently, NEV battery financial products can be divided into battery rental and battery leasing; Battery rental is more appropriate for battery swapping

NIO applies BaaS mode (vehicle purchasing + battery rental) to optimize its charging solutions and forms a closed loop business model

NIO jointly establish battery asset management company with its partners, which reduces the financial pressure on charging and battery swapping operation and tries to have the full life cycle battery operation profit by exploring new business

XPENG offers battery leasing plan, which lower the BEV initial purchasing cost compared with ICE and put forward the BEV usage advantages to customers

WM Motor offers leasing and rental services to customers and forms closed loop of purchasing-usage-used car sales

Battery leasing/rental plan have lower total cost of ownership if customers only own the vehicle by 5 years, which provide better usage cost and experience

Battery rental/leasing is a new subsegment under the development of NEV market and customer demands, more OEMs will offer such service in future

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