Marketing – ThinkerCarResearch https://thinkercarresearch.com Mon, 26 May 2025 08:30:01 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.1 https://thinkercarresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/cropped-ThinkerCar-32x32.png Marketing – ThinkerCarResearch https://thinkercarresearch.com 32 32 2024 New Energy Vehicle Market Report https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/01/20/2024-new-energy-vehicle-market-report/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/01/20/2024-new-energy-vehicle-market-report/#respond Mon, 20 Jan 2025 08:29:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=476 In 2024, the Chinese passenger vehicle market achieved cumulative sales of 27.1 million units, reflecting a 6.1% YoY growth. This marks the fourth consecutive year of growth.

The New Energy Vehicle market achieved total sales of 12.2 million units, representing a YoY growth of 37.1% and a market penetration rate of 45%.

Throughout 2024, New Energy Vehicle exports reached 1.089 million units, reflecting a YoY growth of 5.4%, with the export growth rate slowing down.

The growth rates for PHEV, EREV, and BEV were 88%, 79%, and 15%, respectively. Although BEVs still held 57.9% of the NEV market share, this marked a decline of 23.7 pcts compared to 2020

Chinese brands captured 81% of the NEV market share, an increase of 20 pct over five years. In contrast, JV brands lagged in product launches, leading to a significant decline in their market share

The NEV market has grown rapidly in the B-segment and above, with penetration rates reaching 48% in the B-segment and 67% in the C/D-segment.
The intensive launch of A-segment NEVs in late 2024 is expected to drive rapid growth in this segment by 2025

NEV SUV and sedan markets maintained rapid growth, while MPVs gradually gained attention. Among the top 10 best-selling models in each category in 2024, 6 out of 10 sedan models, 4 out of 10 SUV models, and 3 out of 10 MPV models were NEVs

BYD achieved rapid growth, with remarkable success in the NEV market. Tesla’s 2024 sales declined 3%, yet maintained second place. Li Auto and AITO also entered the top five

CATL and BYD account for 70% of the power battery market’s installed capacity, with LFP being adopted by more manufacturers

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2024 New Energy Vehicle Market Data & Forecast https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/11/29/2024-new-energy-vehicle-market-data-forecast/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/11/29/2024-new-energy-vehicle-market-data-forecast/#respond Fri, 29 Nov 2024 08:25:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=443 The Chinese passenger vehicle market has maintained stable growth, with sales expected to reach 26.8M units in 2024, up 4.9% YoY.

As of Oct 2024, NEV sales have reached 9.2M units, and full-year sales are expected to surpass 12M, with a penetration rate of 44.7%

As of Oct, NEV exports hit 990k units, a 16.5% YoY increase. Full-year exports are projected to reach 1,230k units, up 19% YoY.

BEVs dominate, EREV & PHEV share rises fast, more brands join EREV/PHEV segment

Chinese brands have captured 80% of the market share in the NEV market, while JV brands are progressing slowly

NEV is gradually developing towards the high-end market, with market penetration showing a dumbbell shape

NEV SUVs show rapid growth, MPVs rising steadily. By Oct, 56 new SUVs vs 40 new sedans launched

BYD, Tesla, and Wuling have maintained stable performance over the years, while competition among other brands has become increasingly intense

CATL and BYD account for 70% of the power battery market’s installed capacity, with LFP being adopted by more manufacturers

As of Q3 2024, global NEV sales reached 11.6M units, with annual sales expected to reach 16.8M units, achieving a penetration rate of 23.1%

Over years of development, Chinese brands have increased their market share from 38.5% in 2015 to 62.5% in 2024, while Japanese brands have declined from 18.1% in 2015 to 3.1% in 2024

Chinese brands’ NEV models have entered multiple global markets and have become the most competitive brands in the NEV market

BYD has become the global leader in NEVs, and furthermore, more Chinese brands are appearing in the top 10 rankings



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Passenger Vehicle Sales and Production Report in Oct 2024 https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/11/20/passenger-vehicle-sales-and-production-report-in-oct-2024/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/11/20/passenger-vehicle-sales-and-production-report-in-oct-2024/#respond Wed, 20 Nov 2024 08:22:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=424 In Oct 2024, the production and sales volumes reached 2.648M and 2.732M units, respectively, indicating continued market growth. Over the first ten months, cumulative production saw a 3% increase, while cumulative sales rose by 4%.

China brands wholesaled 1.9M units (+13% MoM), EU-US brands 514K units (-1% MoM), and J-K brands 316K units (+5% MoM). As of Oct, China brands grew 21% YoY, while foreign brands declined 17% YoY.

In Oct, among the top 20 brands, BYD sold 483.4k (+20% MoM), ranking first; Tesla dropped 23% MoM, ranking tenth; Mercedes-Benz fell 19%.

In 2024, among the top 20 brands, BYD grew 36% YoY, exceeding 3M units. Volkswagen and Toyota declined 10% and 17%, respectively. Tesla’s cumulative sales reached 744k, down 4% YoY.

In Oct, ICE sales reached 1.357M (+7% MoM), PHEV/EREV sales hit 592K (+16% MoM), and BEV sales totaled 782K (+9% MoM). Over the first ten months, ICE sales declined 12% YoY, while PHEV/EREV and BEV grew 86% and 13%, respectively.

Top 10 brands by monthly sales by energy type

Top 10 brands by cumulative sales by energy type

In Oct, SUV sales hit 1.49M (+10% MoM); sedan sales were 1.135M (+9% MoM); MPV sales were 102K (+8% MoM). Over the first ten months, sedan sales declined 1% and MPV sales fell 8%, while SUV sales grew 9%.

Top 10 models by monthly sales by body type

Top 10 models by cumulative sales by body type

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2024 Battery Electric Vehicle Market in China Report https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/10/15/2024-battery-electric-vehicle-market-in-china-report/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/10/15/2024-battery-electric-vehicle-market-in-china-report/#respond Tue, 15 Oct 2024 08:27:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=460 In 2024, China’s BEV sales hit 7.05 million units, growing 15.1% YoY and representing 26% of the total passenger vehicle market

In 2024, China exported 859.3k units of BEVs, marking a decline of 10.3% for the first time. The export volume accounted for 22.4% of total sales, which is a decrease of 4.8 pct compared to 2023

The market share of local makers increased from 61% in 2020 to 71% in 2024, while the share of JV & FO makers dropped to 29%. New car maker startups, represented by NIO, Zeekr, and XPeng, have demonstrated strong momentum in the BEV market

In the BEV market, sedans still dominate, but the share of SUVs has now reached 41%. As makers gradually focus on the MPV sector, the MPV market shows significant potential for growth

By 2024, B-segment and above BEVs reached 44% market share. A00-segment went fully electric, A0-segment 50% BEV, and B+ segments over 20% BEV. This suggests significant growth potential in larger BEV segments

The market share of BEVs priced below 100k yuan is gradually declining, while the share of the 100k-200k yuan and 200k-300k yuan segments is rapidly increasing. In contrast, the market for BEVs priced above 300k yuan is growing slowly.

BEV battery demand continues rapid growth, reaching 361.9 GWh in 2024, up 26.2% YoY. However, growth in battery capacity per vehicle has entered a stable phase.

Currently, the battery energy density range for BEVs is concentrated between 125 to 160 Wh/kg. The increasing demand for low-cost LFP batteries has led to a significant decline in batteries with energy density above 160 Wh/kg

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Passenger Vehicle Export Volume Report in Sep 2024 https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/10/15/passenger-vehicle-export-volume-report-in-sep-2024/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/10/15/passenger-vehicle-export-volume-report-in-sep-2024/#respond Tue, 15 Oct 2024 08:17:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=414 China’s passenger vehicle exports were 386k units, +1.5% MoM and +16.1% YoY.
The outlook for 2024 is positive, with cumulative exports at 3,127k units by Sept, +26.6% YoY.
ICE exports were 281k units (-0.1% MoM), PHEV/EREV exports were 19k units (-3.6% MoM), and BEV exports were 86k units (+8.4% MoM).
  • ICE remains the main export, but PHEV/EREV exports are rising fast. In Sept, ICE exports reached 281k (+15.1% YoY); PHEV/EREV exports were 19k (+645.8% YoY); BEV exports were 86k (+0.7% YoY).
  • In the first 9 months, total ICE exports were 2,257k (+30% YoY); PHEV/EREV exports hit 178k (+298% YoY); BEV exports totaled 692k, flat YoY.
Sedan exports were 104k (+3.4% MoM), SUV exports were 270k (+1.5% MoM), and MPV exports were 7k (-33.2% MoM)
  • By vehicle type, SUVs are the main export category, accounting for nearly 70% of the total. In the first nine months, cumulative exports reached 2,125k, a YoY increase of 20%. Sedan exports totaled 901k, up 40% YoY, while MPV exports reached 70k, with an increase of 86% YoY.
Top 20 passenger vehicle manufacturers by export volume
  • Among the top 20 manufacturers by export volume, Chery, SAIC, and Geely rank 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, with cumulative export volumes of 543.1k, 372.8k, and 299k, respectively. However, due to the EU’s tariff increases, SAIC’s export volume, which is primarily focused on the European market, has decreased by 17.9% YoY.
  • In recent years, BYD has made significant strides in the overseas market, with its cumulative export volume reaching 293.7k, representing a YoY increase of 101.8%.
  • Tesla China has reported a cumulative export volume of 215.6k this year, down 18.8% YoY, while JV manufacturers such as Kia and Hyundai have also begun their export efforts.
Top 20 models by export volume
  • The top three models by cumulative export volume are the Tesla Model 3 (147.4k, +68.2% YoY), MG ZS (111.5k, -29.3% YoY), and Chery Tiggo 7 (89.2k, +8.2% YoY). The Song Plus has become BYD’s best-exporting model, with a cumulative export volume of 70.6k in the first nine months, reflecting a YoY increase of 361%.
  • Another Tesla model, the Model Y, saw its export volume drop to 68.2k this year, a YoY decrease of 53.7%.
As of Sept, the top 10 countries by cumulative export volume
  • As of Sept, the top 3 countries in terms of cumulative exports of ICEs were Russia (722.2k, -5% YoY), Mexico (220.7k, +114% YoY), and the UAE (164.3k, +7% YoY).
  • The top 3 countries in terms of cumulative exports of PHEVs were Brazil (71.7k, +282% YoY), Mexico (25.6k, +1871% YoY), and Uzbekistan (20.8k, +83% YoY).
  • The top 3 countries in terms of cumulative exports of BEVs were Belgium (195.4k, +45% YoY), Thailand (85.4k, -26% YoY), and the UK (84.3k, -18% YoY).
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BYD Passenger Vehicle Production and SalesReport in Sep 2024 https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/10/10/byd-passenger-vehicle-production-and-salesreport-in-sep-2024/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/10/10/byd-passenger-vehicle-production-and-salesreport-in-sep-2024/#respond Thu, 10 Oct 2024 20:02:00 +0000 http://thinkercarresearch.com:8080/?p=24 BYD September Passenger Vehicle Production & Sales Summary
BYD’s passenger vehicle production in Sept reached 439.2k units, with sales of 417.6k units, resulting in a prod-sales ratio of 105%
  • After reducing prod in Jun and Jul to clear market inventory, BYD‘s passenger vehicle prod and sales both hit record highs in Sept, driven by the intensive release of new models. Prod reached 439.2k units, a YoY increase of 57.3%, while sales were 417.6k units, up 45.6% YoY. The launch of its 5th-generation DM-i tech has been met with an enthusiastic market response.
As of Sep, BYD’s total production of passenger vehicles: 2.749M units, total sales: 2.736M units
  • BYD’s cumulative production of passenger vehicles reached 2.749M, up 30.7% year-on-year. This is only 280,000 units short of last year’s total of 3.034M, with annual production expected to exceed 4M units. From January to September, BYD’s sales reached 2.736M, an increase of 32.2%. With new national policies, BYD’s sales this year are also expected to hit 4M units.
BEV sales were 165K (+11.1% MoM), and PHEV sales were 252.6K (+13.6% MoM)
  • Based on the power type, in September, BYD’s BEV sales volume was 165k units, +11.1% MoM, +9.1% YoY, accounting for 40% of total sales. Among them, the sales volume of the Seagull was 43.4k, the Yuan+ was 31.5k, and the Dolphin was 20.3k.
  • Meanwhile, the PHEV sales volume was 252.6k units, +13.6% MoM, +86.2% YoY, accounting for 60% of total sales. Among them, the sales volume of the Qin L DM and the Seal 06D both exceeded 40,000 units, while the sales volume of the Song Plus DM also exceeded 30,000 units.
Cumulative BEV sales: 1,169.6k; cumulative PHEV sales: 1,566.8k
  • BYD’s cumulative PHEV sales: 1,566.8k, YoY +53.3%, surpassing last year’s total of 1,438.1k. With DM-I tech support, BYD is expected to exceed 2.3M units in this segment. Cumulative BEV sales: 1,169.6k, YoY +11.6%, 400k short of last year’s total. Annual sales are projected to reach 1.6M units.
BYD’s export volume in September reached 30.5k vehicles, representing a YoY increase of 8.8%, accounting for 7.3% of total sales. Among these, 21.7k units were BEV models, and 8.7k units were PHEV models.
The top three exported models were:
  • Song Plus DM: 6k
  • Yuan Plus EV: 4.7k
  • Seal EV: 3.4k
BYD’s cumulative exports: 294.4k, (+102.3% YoY)
  • As of Sept, BYD’s cumulative exports reached 294.4k, YoY +102.3%. If the current trend continues, total annual exports will approach 400k, doubling last year’s total.
  • Among these, BEV exports totaled 175.8k, and PHEV exports reached 117.8k. The Song Plus DM and Seagull EV were the two best-selling models, with cumulative exports of 60.3k and 46k, respectively.
Battery installed capacity was 19.8 GWh (+5.1% MoM)
In September, boosted by record new car sales, BYD’s battery installed capacity reached 19.8 GWh, +5.1% MoM, and +38% YoY, setting a new historical high.
BYD’s cumulative battery installed capacity reached 127.72 GWh
As of September, BYD’s cumulative battery installed capacity reached 127.72 GWh, with a YoY increase of 26.5%. This is only 23.189 GWh less than last year’s total installed capacity of 150.909 GWh. Based on current trends, BYD’s total installed capacity for 2024 is expected to reach 190 GWh, representing a YoY growth of 26%.
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Automotive Market Annual Summaryin China in 2023 https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/02/05/automotive-market-annual-summaryin-china-in-2023/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/02/05/automotive-market-annual-summaryin-china-in-2023/#respond Mon, 05 Feb 2024 20:06:00 +0000 http://thinkercarresearch.com:8080/?p=29 Passenger vehicle market demand rebounds, with NEVs challenging the dominance of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.
  • PV sales reached 25.54 million units in 2023, up 10.4% year-on-year, marking the first time in five years the growth rate has exceeded 10%. This surge is attributed to the stronger-than-expected economic recovery in the second half of the year and the automakers’ extensive strategies of trading price for volume.
  • NEVs and traditional fuel vehicles will be in a long-term battle for market share, with sales of the latter still experiencing a steep downward trend.
Market demand sub-200K RMB rationalizes, while the 300K-500K RMB bracket is set for a showdown between smart features and luxury amenities.
  • From the perspective of consumer budgets, the competitive landscape at the top of the market is divided into three price ranges. Below 200K RMB, the segment is dominated by electric vehicles, with BYD standing out as a leader. In the 200K to 300K RMB bracket, VW faces stiff challenges. For the 300K-500K RMB segment, the leading position is contested by BBA and intelligent brands such as Li Auto and NIO, while the market above 500K RMB is still led by the BBA group.
  • The 200K-500K RMB market segment is poised to welcome several new models from popular NEV brands like Li Auto, AITO, and Xiaomi in 2024, marking the year’s most significant industry highlight. Meanwhile, the perennially stable luxury market share of the BBA may face disruption in 2024.
The automotive market is increasingly shifting towards the central-northern regions and mid-tier cities.
  • Regionally, market shares in the Northeast, North China, Northwest, and Central China regions have grown, while other areas have seen a decline in their market share.
  • By city, the market share in fourth and fifth-tier cities continues to decline, while second and third-tier cities have seen an increase in their shares, indicating a market shift towards mid-tier cities.
As overseas influence has grown, PV exports have become a new volume growth area.
  • PV exports have maintained a high growth trend. In 2023, the export of complete vehicles reached 3.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 60%, with new energy vehicles hitting 1 million, a 71% increase.
High-quality development leads to the reshaping of industrial chain ecosystems.
  • The automotive industry once centered around OEMs, but in the past two years, industry profits have begun to disperse upstream and downstream.
High-quality development leads to innovative exploration of channel models.
  • The rise of direct sales models presents new opportunities for the automotive industry, transforming not only the sales channels but also contact points such as finance, maintenance, and software services in the aftermarket.
A more distinct segmentation in purchasing decisions has emerged.
  • Nearly 90% of gasoline consumers make comparisons within the fuel vehicle market, creating an independent competition; approximately 80% of pure EV users compare among electric models, forming a separate competitive segment in the EV market.
  • Plug-in hybrid & range extender users not only compare within their own vehicle types but also with gasoline vehicles, posing a threat to the fuel vehicle market.
The market share of fuel vehicles in the 100K to 200K RMB price range has declined the most, gradually being encroached upon by new energy vehicles.
  • In the fuel vehicle market, market shares have declined in price segments below 300K RMB, while shares remain stable above the 300K RMB price point.
  • Pure electric vehicles have seen a market share increase in the 100K to 400K RMB price range, while plug-in hybrids/range extenders have maintained rapid growth in price segments above 100K RMB.
BYD surpassed VW and Toyota to become the sales champion of 2023.
  • Benefiting from the explosive growth of the new energy market, BYD surpassed Toyota and VW, achieving the sales champion of 2023 with a growth rate of nearly 50%.
  • Traditional market leaders such as VW, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and others experienced a sales decline in 2023.
The SUV segment saw the largest growth in the 100K to 200K RMB price range, while the market share of sedans has gradually declined.
  • In the sedan market, the under 200K RMB price segment experienced a significant reduction in market share, while the 200K to 400K RMB range saw some growth.
  • In the SUV market, the market share in the 100K to 200K RMB price range is now on par with that of sedans, and the 300K to 400K RMB range has also seen some growth.
VW continues to lead the sedan market, while BYD dominates the top spot in the SUV market.
  • In the sedan market, VW’s sales reached 1.494 million units, followed closely by BYD, with Toyota falling far behind the first two.
  • In the SUV market, BYD achieved sales of 1.02 million units, with Toyota ranking second and VW in third place.
  • In the MPV market, Wuling, primarily with its Hongguang models in the budget segment, ranks first, followed by Trumpchi in second place.
Sales in the East China region lead and continue to grow, while the Central and Northern regions have all seen an increase in sales.
  • In 2023, except for a decline in sales in the South China region, all other regions experienced growth in sales, with the Northwest increasing by 29% and the Northeast by 21%, showing remarkable performance.
The penetration rate of new energy products has been increasing year by year, exceeding 40% in first-tier cities.
  • The penetration rate of new energy products in first-tier cities reaches as high as 43%, with the rate in new first-tier cities also surpassing 35%.
  • The penetration rate in second and third-tier cities has seen a substantial increase of up to 9%.
BYD leads its competitors across first to fourth-tier cities, while Tesla’s customer base is concentrated in first-tier and new first-tier cities.
  • Across first- to fourth-tier cities, BYD has, for the first time, overtaken VW to claim the top spot, with VW and Toyota following in second position.
  • Tesla’s sales are concentrated in first-tier and new first-tier cities.

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New Energy Vehicle Market Summaryin China in 2023 https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/02/01/new-energy-vehicle-market-summaryin-china-in-2023/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/02/01/new-energy-vehicle-market-summaryin-china-in-2023/#respond Thu, 01 Feb 2024 08:14:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=393 PV sales reached a new high in 2023, surpassing 25 million units.

NEV lead with sales on the rise, achieving a 34.7% market penetration rate.

NEVs make a significant contribution to exports, standing alongside solar energy and lithium batteries as the ‘New Trio’ in foreign trade exports.

BEVs Lead in the New Energy Sector, with New Entrants in PHEV/EREV Segment.

Domestic brands occupy over 80% of the new energy market share, while joint venture growth is slow.

The scale of the new energy market exhibits an ‘oval’ distribution, with penetration rates in a ‘dumbbell’ configuration.

New energy sedans show steady improvement, while SUVs surge powerfully.

The elimination round for new energy players is approaching, with competition intensifying and the industry landscape beginning to take shape.

New energy is accelerating penetration across cities of all tiers, with the growth rate of penetration in first-tier cities showing signs of fatigue.

CATL and BYD command a 70% share of the market’s power battery installation volume, with LFP being the predominant battery material.

Public charging advances steadily, private charging strides rapidly forward, and the charging station count increasingly meets demand.

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Insights and Forecasts for the Plug-in Vehicle Market in 2023 https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/01/26/insights-and-forecasts-for-the-plug-in-vehicle-market-in-2023/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2024/01/26/insights-and-forecasts-for-the-plug-in-vehicle-market-in-2023/#respond Fri, 26 Jan 2024 08:06:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=368 Plug-in hybrids lead the acceleration over other markets, with the trend of replacing conventional energy continuing to gain momentum.

In contrast to the stable expansion of the pure EV sector, plug-in hybrid vehicles have risen as an unexpected contender. In 2023, the segment recorded cumulative sales of 2.369 million units, realizing an impressive YOY surge of 85.3% in growth rate, with a market penetration of 10.9%, thus spearheading the industry’s growth.

Reviewing the annual sales performance, following the surge in the EV market in 2020, the plug-in hybrid market was subsequently ignited. It is currently in a period of product abundance and is experiencing rapid growth.

The plug-in vehicle market has experienced substantial transformation following years of swift advancement.
  • Despite the stellar performance of the plug-in vehicle market, there is a significant internal disparity within the sector.
  • Salient features of the plug-in market include: (1) SUVs outperform sedans; (2) Entry-level segments face constraints, lacking market entries; (3) High-tier sedans show diminishing annual performance, unlike SUVs which improve with higher tiers; (4) EV ranges are growing, with around 100 km becoming standard, though longer ranges fare better.

The EREV market is invigorated by Li Auto, which, with its exceptional cost-performance ratio, precisely captures market share from BBA incumbents.

Post-launch, Li Auto continues to dominate the plug-in hybrid market in the 300K RMB and above price segment.
  • Data indicates that the launch of Li Auto’s extended-range vehicles has broken the monopoly held by BBA in the market segment above 300,000 RMB, with their L series emerging as a blockbuster product.
The plug-in vehicle market adheres to a tiered city penetration model, with PHEVs’ tendency towards gasoline power contributing to their swift penetration into lower-tier markets.
  • The plug-in vehicle market exhibits a structured penetration across urban tiers, with first- and second-tier cities serving as the primary engine for growth and channeling development momentum to third- and fourth-tier cities.
  • Examining PHEV and EREV trends, PHEVs are penetrating rapidly across all city tiers, with little difference in penetration rates, as some users in lower-tier cities view PHEVs akin to gasoline vehicles. EREVs, facing higher mainstream product prices and increased reliance on charging infrastructure for their extended range, are primarily gaining ground in higher-tier cities.
Mainstream consumer attention varies significantly.
  • The purchasing considerations of mainstream PHEV and EREV consumers differ. PHEV buyers lean more towards the characteristics of conventional vehicles, with a keen pursuit of cost-effectiveness and a desire for distinctive new-energy features in their cars; EREV buyers, on the other hand, tend to be additional purchasers who experience some range anxiety but prefer the smooth driving dynamics and robust power of all-electric vehicles, thus their focus is more aligned with pure EVs.
Short-term forecasts show the 100-200k plug-in segment outpacing pure EVs, with sustained growth into 2024.
  • Beginning in H2 2023, numerous automakers will roll out plug-ins within the 100-200k bracket. Balancing cost and consumer appeal, plug-ins are poised for a competitive edge in this price segment in the near to mid-term.
  • The current plug-in market in the 100-200k bracket has evolved into a ‘one leader, multiple strong contenders’ competitive landscape, with mainstream players like BYD, Geely, and Changan, traditional automakers expected to dominate in 2024. Additionally, the steady flow of new models from other enterprises will further fuel continuous high growth in this price range.
The plug-in market shows a distinct advantage in the 100-150k sedan segment and the 150-200k SUV segment.
  • The 100-200k price range dominates the plug-in market with over half the share, chiefly driven by 100-150k sedans and 150-200k SUVs accounting for nearly 90% of sales. Plug-in vehicle penetration is on a swift rise, rapidly displacing fuel vehicles.
BYD dominates the 100-200K price segment in the plug-in market.
  • The 100-200K price range is BYD’s stronghold in the plug-in market, with models like Qin Plus DM, Destroyer 05 DM, and Song Plus DM and Song Pro DM leading their respective segments.
Recognizing the plug-in market’s vast potential, 2024 is set to see a significant influx of products from a myriad of companies.
  • Currently, the plug-in market is chiefly concentrated in the 100-250K price range, with BYD products setting the competitive benchmark in the PHEV sector, notably within the mainstream Class-A segment which is rapidly refreshing its lineup. Extended-range models, predominantly from the Deepal series, are engaged in direct competition with PHEVs.
  • In the market above 250K, range-extender products prevail, with AITO’s updated lineup challenging Li Auto’s predominant position. Nearly 50 new models are set to enter the market in 2024, likely fueling rapid market growth.
Demand for enhanced electric-only range in plug-ins is escalating, with PHEVs set to parallel the extensive range of BEVs in the future.
  • From 2021 to 2023, plug-in vehicles with 100-120km ranges lead the market, catering to most household needs. Ranges of 150-200km have risen sharply with new entrants like Li Auto, AITO, and Deepal S7. Later in 2023, PHEVs such as Lynk&Co 08 and Tang Champion Edition surpassed 200km, reaching parity with the longest-range vehicles.
  • Data research has revealed that if a product’s pure electric range is rated at CLTC 100 kilometers, it would only meet the needs of 17% of users. If rated at CLTC 200 kilometers, it could satisfy 65% of users, and a rating of CLTC 231 kilometers would meet the needs of 80% of users.
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Analysis And Outlook Of The Mainstream BEV Market https://thinkercarresearch.com/2022/01/12/analysis-and-outlook-of-the-mainstream-bev-market-in-2021/ Wed, 12 Jan 2022 10:50:00 +0000 http://thinkercarresearch.com:8080/?p=19 In 2021, the mainstream market has not yet been large volume and the future market potential is huge.

The 100,000-200,000 price area, mainly in the A-level market, is the market with the largest market capacity.
Existing models have not yet appeared popular models, urgently need star models to lead the sales growth.
Sales are expected to double in 2022, with a market size of 1.1 million-1.3 million.

BEV penetration rate is low, and the future market potential is huge.

The 100,000-200,000 yuan is the mainstream price area of China’s passenger car market, but the BEV in this price area has not yet been increased, which is an important potential market.
  • In 2021, the sales volume of 100,000-200,000 yuan BEVs was nearly 700,000, focusing on the A-class market.
  • The 100,000-200,000 price area is the mainstream price area of passenger car sales in China. The sales volume reaches 10 million units, but the penetration rate of BEV is only 6%, with huge potential in the future.

There are no blockbuster models yet and star models are badly needed to lead sales growth.

The sales volume of the 100,000-200,000 price area is focused on the A-class market, but the existing models have not yet appeared popular models and star models are urgently needed to lead the sales growth.
  • Traditional independent brands: Has achieved initial market results, is exploring the way to burst sales, such as BYD, Aion, ORA, etc.
  • Traditional joint venture brands: As an important main body of the traditional fuel price area, it has released electric strategies to accelerate the strategic transformation, such as: Volkswagen, Honda, etc.
  • New power brand: After consolidating the existing price area, the price area drops to 150,000-200,000 yuan, such as: Xpeng P5, Nio Gemini, etc.

Whether the private market can be opened up is the key to the subsequent development of Aion S.

Local industry support, opening up to the public market, has a strong regional nature, whether it can open the private market is the key to its subsequent development.
  • In 2021, the cumulative sales volume was 72,000, with a monthly average of 5,986 units and 100,000 to 200,000 BEV MS% was 10.4%.
  • In 2021, Guangdong province accounted for 55.3% and the public share reached 65.6%.

Volkswagen and other ordinary brands accelerate the transformation or will emerge star models.

Volkswagen has always been a leading brand in the Chinese market, but its electrification transformation is relatively backward and Volkswagen will accelerate its launch of ID. series in 2021. The monthly sales of more than ten thousand.
  • The VW Group said it will invest 89 billion euros in the next five years in new technologies, such as electric vehicles and digitization and lessen the gap with Tesla.
  • A quarter of VW’s new cars sold are expected to be battery-driven by 2026 and it plans to become the global electric vehicle market leader by 2025.
  • In 2021, the monthly sales volume of Volkswagen ID. series has exceeded 10,000. In the future, with the introduction of more models and the promotion of the dual-car strategy and model segmentation strategy, the electric transformation of VW will accelerate.

The models built based on the pure electric platform have high cost performance, or will emerge the star models.

Users of 100,000-200,000-price area pay close attention to the cost performance, with the cost performance of fuel vehicles may become star models.
  • With the deepening of the electrification process, the mainstream car companies have launched pure electric platforms, such as: BYD, Volkswagen, Honda, GAC, Leap, Neta, etc.
  • The models built based on the pure electric platform have the advantages of large space, good driving experience and low cost and the models and fuel vehicles are basically affordable and have advantages in space, use cost, driving experience and other aspects, or will launch the replacement effect on fuel vehicles, and become the key to detonate the mainstream market.

Models based on differentiation positioning may become star models in the market segment.

The largest market capacity in the 100,000-200,000 price area is the fertile soil for cultivating hot style models in the market segment. ORA has achieved certain success with differentiated positioning.
  • ORA is positioning a car brand that loves women more, focusing on the women’s car market. The Cat family helps ORA sales continue to increase.
  • In the future, ORA will continue to deepen its differentiation positioning, deeply cultivate the female car market and may become the star product of the subdivided car market in the future.
  • The evolution of the car market towards diversification, or will emerge more star models in the market segment and become the key to detonate the mainstream market.

Sales are expected to double in 2022 to 1.1 million-1.3 million yuan.

The 100,000-200,000 price area is an important potential market. With the accelerated layout of mainstream car companies, the sales volume may double in 2022 to 1.1 million to 1.3 million.
  • At present, the BEV penetration rate in the mainstream price area is relatively low and it has not yet been increased. The sales volume in 2021 is only 680,000 units.
  • But 100,000-200,000 price area is the core sales market of traditional fuel vehicles, the market capacity of 10 million, the mainstream car companies have layout.
  • In 2022, the mainstream market may emerge with star models, leading the sales surge and the market size may reach 1.1 million-1.3 million.
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