Analysis – ThinkerCarResearch https://thinkercarresearch.com Mon, 26 May 2025 09:22:49 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.1 https://thinkercarresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/cropped-ThinkerCar-32x32.png Analysis – ThinkerCarResearch https://thinkercarresearch.com 32 32 China C/C+ SUV Reshuffle & NEV Explosion https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/05/23/china-c-c-suv-reshuffle-nev-explosion/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/05/23/china-c-c-suv-reshuffle-nev-explosion/#respond Fri, 23 May 2025 10:45:49 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=498 As of May 2025, 114 new vehicles will be launched in the Chinese market. Among them, up to 25 new energy SUVs in the C/C+ segment will be introduced, making it the sub-market with the largest number of model launches.

As the proportion of multi – child families in China rises, the demand for interior space and comfort in vehicles has increased significantly. This has also driven the rapid growth of C/C+-segment new energy SUVs. It is expected that the annual sales volume will reach 1.61 million units in 2025 and 1.725 million units in 2026.

In the new energy SUV market at the C/C+ segment over the years, the top five best-selling brands have always accounted for 70% of the sales; with a large market scale and high growth potential, and relatively less intense competition compared to other market segments, this has attracted brands such as Geely Galaxy, Onvo, and Zeekr to enter this field one after another.

Models such as the Li Auto I8, XPeng G01, and LeDao L80 are scheduled for market launch in the second half of this year, while models like the Volkswagen ID.ERA and BYD Dynasty-D will also enter this segment next year. With the continuous influx of new participants, the market is poised to undergo a profound restructuring.

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Toyota Defies JV Decline in China https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/05/20/toyota-defies-jv-decline-in-china/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/05/20/toyota-defies-jv-decline-in-china/#respond Tue, 20 May 2025 09:01:21 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=519 Against the backdrop of a widespread sales decline among major JV brands in the first four months of 2025, Toyota emerged as the sole brand to achieve year-on-year growth. It recorded a cumulative sales volume of 469K units, representing a 9.3% year-on-year increase.

While ICE vehicles maintained an 8.6% growth, the sales growth of Toyota’s BEVs became the primary driver of overall sales growth in the Chinese market.
Among them, the newly launched bZ3X remained the main model driving this growth.

The biggest highlight of the Toyota bZ3X is its adoption of the Momenta 5.0 intelligent driving system, equipped with sensing hardware such as LiDAR, enabling intelligent driving functions on highways and in urban areas. In comparison, its competitors generally lag behind the bZ3X in intelligent driving capabilities; additionally, the bZ3X’s pricing is highly competitive, which is why it has achieved success so far.

Toyota bZ3X focuses on the mainstream market through high – intelligent driving technologies (LiDAR + Orin X chip) and precise pricing (ranging from 109,800 to 159,800 yuan). Relying on the Chinese team to lead the entire development process, it achieves breakthroughs with the strategy of “joint – venture quality + intelligent equal rights”.

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NIO Q1 Revenue Drop & Model Sales Plunge https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/04/17/nio-q1-revenue-drop-model-sales-plunge/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/04/17/nio-q1-revenue-drop-model-sales-plunge/#respond Thu, 17 Apr 2025 11:38:12 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=490 The SUV market in the C/D segment in China has been developing at a rapid pace in recent years, showing a growth rate of more than two digits each year from 2020 to 2024. It is estimated that the total retail volume of this segment’s market will reach 1,610k units in 2025, representing a YoY growth of 30.6%.

The selling prices of SUV models in the C/D segment market mainly concentrate within the range of 250k to 350k (>70%).
Among them, EREV models represented by Li Auto and AITO account for more than 50% of the market share, while models account for 18% of the share.

In the main target market of the L90, the AITO M9 EREV and Li L9 EREV hold an absolute dominant position. Among pure electric models, the ES8, NIO’s current flagship SUV, has a starting price as high as 500k RMB, lagging significantly in sales compared to the AITO M9 EV and Xpeng X9 EV. For the L90 to enter this market, the pricing of its products will be crucial.

Based on the fact that EREV dominates this niche market and the preliminary simulation of the competitive relationship between ONVO L90 and its competitors, the reasonable pricing range for L90 is 299,800 – 349,800 RMB.
Its annual sales volume benchmark is expected to be 30,000 – 35,000 units, and optimistically, it will reach 40,000 – 50,000 units.

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BYD Battery External Supply Growth https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/29/byd-battery-external-supply-growth/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/29/byd-battery-external-supply-growth/#respond Sat, 29 Mar 2025 10:09:30 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=242 According to retail data, BYD’s battery usage reached approximately 16 GWh in the first two months of 2025, a YoY increase of 36.7%, with BEV accounting for 69% and EREV/PHEV 31%.

In the BEV market, vehicles using BYD’s 125-140Wh/kg battery packs accounted for approximately 125k units, while those with 140-160Wh/kg packs reached 77k units, with the PHEV/EREV market dominated by <125Wh/kg battery packs at around 256k units.

Compared to the same period last year, BYD’s internal battery usage share decreased to 78.7% in the first two months of 2025, while its supply to other manufacturers reached 21.3%. Among these external customers, XPeng and Onvo ranked top two in terms of battery usage.

In the top ten rankings of model battery usage, XPeng’s MONA m03 ranks first with a usage of 1.8 GWh, accounting for a high proportion of 11.5%. Onvo’s L60 ranks sixth with a usage of 0.7 GWh, accounting for 4.4%. The remaining models in the list are all under BYD.

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Luxury Auto Market Shift & Chinese Brands Rise https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/27/luxury-auto-market-shift-chinese-brands-rise/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/27/luxury-auto-market-shift-chinese-brands-rise/#respond Thu, 27 Mar 2025 11:30:03 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=271 Previously dominated by Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, the 300k+ yuan passenger vehicle segment has seen Chinese automakers collectively moving upmarket amid the explosive growth of NEVs.


Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi’s market share in this segment has dropped from 56.1% in 2021 to 42.9% today—a decline of 13.2%.

Mercedes-Benz’s share of sales for models priced 300k+ yuan dropped from 74.4% in 2022 to 58.1% in 2025—a decline of 16.3%. BMW’s share fell from 70.7% to 40.8%, a decrease of 29.9%, while Audi’s share dropped from 50% to 27.6%, representing a 22.4%decline.

Chinese new Car-making brands represented by Li Auto, AITO, and others have established a strong presence in the 300k+ Yuan segment. As this trend continues to shift, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi face significant challenges in this market.

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100-150k RMB BEV Market Growth https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/26/100-150k-rmb-bev-market-growth/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/26/100-150k-rmb-bev-market-growth/#respond Wed, 26 Mar 2025 14:54:18 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=229 The 100k-150k RMB BEV Sedan market continues its rapid growth, achieving 84,000 units in sales during the first two months of 2025 (+98% YoY). Annual sales are projected to reach 720,000 units, accounting for 37.9% of the total BEV Sedan market.

In the 100k-150k RMB BEV sedan segment, the XPeng M03 currently dominates the market with robust sales, followed by the BYD Qin+ EV. With the arrival of the BYD Qin L EV, the segment is poised for another shift.

Based on a comprehensive evaluation of product strength, brand influence, and dealer network coverage, the BYD Qin L EV is projected to achieve a monthly sales volume of 13,050 units in 2025. Driven by this impact, XPeng MONA M03’s monthly sales are projected to decline to 10,710 units, representing a 17.6% drop.

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NIO & Onvo Channel Integration Crisis https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/14/nio-onvo-channel-integration-crisis/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/14/nio-onvo-channel-integration-crisis/#respond Fri, 14 Mar 2025 13:09:11 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=375 Since the Onvo L60 began deliveries last September, its sales have not brought a qualitative improvement to NIO. In the BEV market, NIO’s market share has dropped from a peak of 4.1% last year to around 2.7-2.8% currently.
NIO’s mainstay models EC6+ES6 also experienced a 14.7% YoY decline in sales during the first two months of this year due to the Onvo L60.

Since H2 2024, NIO’s channel has expanded purchase incentives for ES6/EC6—meanwhile, Onvo’s separate channel added L60 incentives in January 2025. However, the sub-brand’s promotions failed to generate any cross-channel spillover for NIO’s lineup, which is also a disadvantage of the dual-channel strategy.

While NIO and its sub-brand Onvo operate separate channel networks (589 vs. 300 stores), their monthly average sales per store—14.5 units for NIO and 16.6 units for Onvo—trail far behind competitors like Li Auto and XPeng. This dual-channel structure makes cross-brand channel integration NIO’s urgent priority.

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Porsche China Sales Decline & Luxury Shift https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/11/porsche-china-sales-decline-luxury-shift/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/11/porsche-china-sales-decline-luxury-shift/#respond Tue, 11 Mar 2025 15:41:35 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=281 In the current market dominated by new energy vehicles, Porsche’s retail volume in China has declined YoY for two consecutive years, with a further drop of 32% in 2024.

In the Chinese market in 2024, Porsche SUV retail volume declined by 33% YoY, with main model Cayenne dropping by 25%; sedan retail volume fell by 31% YoY; among sportscars, the 718 and 911 declined by 26% and 42% respectively.

From a city tier perspective, Porsche retail sales in tier 1 & new tier 1 cities declined by 31% YoY, while retail sales in tier 2 & 3 cities declined by 34% YoY.

In the 500,000+ yuan segment, Porsche’s share in Tier 1 and New Tier 1 cities dropped from 9.8% in 2023 to 8.5% in 2024, while its share in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities declined from 8.1% in 2023 to 7.1% in 2024. This indicates that the rise of Huawei AITO is encroaching on the luxury car market, including Porsche.

As a direct competitor to the Porsche Cayenne, Huawei’s AITO M9 has completely outperformed the Porsche Cayenne in the retail market thanks to its powerful product capabilities.

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Geely Galaxy NEV Market Rise https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/07/geely-galaxy-nev-market-rise/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/07/geely-galaxy-nev-market-rise/#respond Fri, 07 Mar 2025 14:15:20 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=391 Since its launch in 2019, the integrated Geely Galaxy achieved terminal sales of 346k units in the Chinese market in 2024 (BEV: 198k units, PHEV: 148k units), reaching a 3.2% market share in the new energy vehicle sector.

The Geely Galaxy brand has experienced rapid growth, rising from 15th place in the top 10 NEV brand rankings in 2022 to 6th place in 2024, surpassing brands such as Chery and Changan.

Geely Galaxy’s currently available models are primarily concentrated in the price range below 150,000 yuan, with Galaxy E5 and Galaxy L7 serving as its mainstay models, both achieving over 70,000 retail sales units in 2024.

Geely Galaxy has been actively expanding into lower-tier cities. As of 2024, its sales proportion in tier 1 & new tier 1 cities has decreased from 68% in 2019 to 31%, while sales in tier 2 & tier 3 cities and tier 4 & tier 5 cities have increased to 48% and 21% respectively.

In the below 150k yuan nev market in tier 1 & new tier 1 cities, Geely Galaxy ranks fourth with a 6.1% market share, narrowly trailing Wuling, which ranks third. In tier 2 & tier 3 cities as well as tier 4 & tier 5 cities, Geely Galaxy ranks third with market shares of 5.6% and 5.2% respectively, though there is a significant gap compared to Wuling.

The sales of Geely Galaxy’s key models in different city tiers lag significantly behind competitor BYD. However, with brand consolidation and product iteration, its market competitiveness will strengthen in the future.

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Chery ICE Dominance & NEV Infection https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/05/chery-ice-dominance-nev-infection/ https://thinkercarresearch.com/2025/03/05/chery-ice-dominance-nev-infection/#respond Wed, 05 Mar 2025 09:55:00 +0000 https://thinkercarresearch.com/?p=261 With the enhancement of product strength and active overseas expansion, Chery passenger vehicle has achieved rapid growth in recent years. In 2024, its global sales reached 2.75 million units, marking a YoY increase of 29.9%.

Export volume has increased year by year, with Chery passenger vehicles growing from 26k units exported in 2015 to 700k units in 2024, with exports accounting for nearly 30% of its total sales.

ICEs remain Chery’s main sales type, accounting for more than 80% of its total internal sales. BEVs have been promoted for several years but still cannot bear the main burden. PHEV+EREV has already surpassed BEV.

Chery PV currently has four brands, among which the Chery brand’s share has shrunk to 69%, while Jetour maintains a 22% share, and Exeed and Luxeed (the latter in collaboration with Huawei) together account for 8%. Tiggo 8, Jetour T-1, Exeed M38T, and Luxeed S7 are the main selling models for each brand.

Chery PV sales are currently concentrated in the 100k-200k RMB range, increasing from 46% in 2020 to 63% in 2024. The proportion of 200k-300k models has also increased to 11%. Upward movement in product strength has achieved positive results.

Except for North America, which declined by 27.9%, Chery’s exports to other regions showed significant growth in 2024. Europe and Asia are its main export regions, accounting for 45% and 32% of the share respectively.

Among the top 10 export countries, Russia is Chery’s main export destination, accounting for 36.8% of export share and growing 21% YoY in 2024. Mexico is the only country among the top ten that declined YoY, while Brazil grew by more than 86%, ranking third.

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